Jun 7, 2010

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan's World Cup predictions

Not only UBS makes World Cup predictions.  Here are the predictions of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan (in that order). These combine, rankings, betting odds and otehr stuff. For all banks, Brazil is the clear favorite, while Spain, which, according to UBS had only a 4% chance of winning, is the runner-up this time. JP Morgan even gives its predictions for all games, with England taking the trophy in the end, not Brazil. You can find the three reports here.


JoshTov said...

The GS document is absolutely fantastic and a must-read for any serious football fan. Haven't read the UBS or JP Morgan predictions yet - thanks putting them up.

J Alamgir said...

Each bank -- GS, UBS, and JPM -- uses a slightly different mix of variables, out of which two are common: current ranking and past performance. JPM explains its model in much more detail than the other two.

I've done a comparative meta-analysis of the three predictions at: http://localandglobal.wordpress.com/2010/06/05/world-cup-predictions-meta-analysis/