UBS on overvalued teams and World Cup predictions

In order to understand the distinction between a team’s sporting successes and the market value of its players (the sum of estimated transfer values of the individual players), UBS’ wealth management research has tried to calculate the ’fair value’ of the world’s top 100 national teams. By ’fair’ they mean the price a team should have, if we only consider variables related to its sporting quality, like previous successes, current ranking, and the average age.

England has the most overvalued squad, followed by France, Argentina and Spain. In contrast, the US, Greece, Paraguay and Mexico have the most undervalued, or ’quality-for-money’ teams. As UBS warns us, “whether or not this will help the US to defeat England in their group stage clash is a different question though”.
As for clubs, the talk about German efficiency...

In 2006, UBS had correctly predicted Italy would win the Cup. This year, it says Brazil is most likely to win, with a likelihood of 22%. More World Cup predictions and advice on how to invest in Africa in their investor’s guide.