Jun 29, 2010

World Cup Pool

The first round of the World Cup is over, hence it is time to announce the winner of the World Cup pool. Drum roll... Cameron! He correctly predicted 52% of the games... and that is better than JP Morgan's statistical model! But overall, JP Morgan's model did better than our prediction market (see horse race below).

Among banks it is UBS who did better, with a 66% accuracy, as calculated by Miroslav (not comparable with our percentage).

UBS                  66%
JP Morgan         59%
Goldman Sachs  53%

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