If you want to know who is gonna win the next US presidential election (November 4, 2008) you have three options. Ask your favorite expert on the subject (your mother-in-law for example); look at your favourite opinion pollster (Vanity Fair); or do some (useful) Econometrics I exercise (for the nerds).
In a paper written in 1978, Ray Fair showed how to use econometrics to predict presidential elections. The idea is that voters look at the current events and past performance of the economy to make their political decision. Apparently, the current slowdown is not bad news for the world...check it out!!