Oct 10, 2009

“Noble Nobel”: legitimacy and prospects for the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economics

The Taliban condemns Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize saying that "[Obama] reinforces the war in Afghanistan, sent more troops to Afghanistan and is considering sending yet more. He has shed Afghan blood and he continues to bleed Afghans and to boost the war here." This being rather an extreme position on the Norwegian Nobel Prize Committee’s decision from this Friday, it is indisputable that Barack Obama’s win has generated mixed reactions across the world. The committee said it honored the American president for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.”

Obama is the fourth US President to win the Nobel Peace Prize, however, in contrast to Carter, Roosevelt or Wilson, he has been chosen not for past accomplishments, “but for “vision” and inspiring “hope” at the beginning of his presidency” (CNN). In my opinion such decision above all questions the legitimacy of the Nobel Prize itself. Giving out Nobels for the ability to “capture world’s attention” is bonkers (in a public statement the Committee as part of their explanation supporting their decision has also stated that the US President won because “Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world's attention”)…

Undoubtedly, the Committee’s irrationality further builds up the anticipation with which many ( I assume) will be awaiting Monday’s Announcement of the 2009 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel. It just might be so that this year, Thomson Reuter’s adumbrations, are completely off. Creditability may also be a problem with the InTrade and Ladbrokes’ predictions and probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics. For example here are Ladbrokes' probabilities:

Eugene Fama 2/1

Paul Romer 4/1

Ernst Fehr 6/1

Kenneth R. French 6/1

William Nordhaus 6/1

Robert Barro 7/1

Matthew J Rabin 8/1

Jean Tirole 9/1

Martin Weitzman

The Inkling Market’s valuations can be just as cocky...

Thus I believe that with the cuckoo nature of the Nobel Prize Committee nowadays any of the following are just as good bets for Econ winners as the Fama, Romer or the others: Bottom line: Even though not as 'bronzato' there is hope for Silivio in the end (at least for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize)…

p.s. Be sure to turn on your volume when you go to his support website!


Lala said...

A slight correction to this post:

in the ending remarks:

"Thus I believe that with the cuckoo nature of the Nobel Prize Committee nowadays any of the following are just as good bets for Econ winners as the Fama, Romer or the others."

The link was to be on "any of the following" rather than "others" - i.e. in my view, in the light of the "Oslo Nobel Hiroshima" anyone on the TIME Magazine's 25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis is just as likely to grab the Econ Nobel as any of the prominent academia...

the Nobel Committee's irrationality might well sire a déjà vu of Richard S. Fuld, Jr. making the headlines on Monday

so once again apologies for the confusion, but it was a 2AM post

TomasHozik said...

I am looking at the bright side, if their decision has any predictive power on who will get the Nobel in Econ. One of the HEI students is very likely to be the 2009 Nobel Price winner! I hope it's gonna be me (only me cos I don't want to share the prize money!!!).