tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9204374242006832151.post8657872880543638513..comments2023-07-06T10:48:10.382+01:00Comments on Rigotnomics: Roulette - how (not) to make money on the Martingale StrategyPierre-Louishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03936185995162366004noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9204374242006832151.post-16024266210245445142009-11-07T14:21:32.110+01:002009-11-07T14:21:32.110+01:00I've tried this a few times, starting with a v...I've tried this a few times, starting with a very small bet and have lost more than I've won. The Fibonacci strategy, a similar negative progression, is marginally more successfull.<br /><br />I've just started blogging about these systems and I would love you to drop by.Mickihttp://winroulette.blogs.se/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9204374242006832151.post-17992543362874575562009-10-19T17:33:47.605+01:002009-10-19T17:33:47.605+01:00Yeap, exactly! That's what I was trying to say...Yeap, exactly! That's what I was trying to say! <br /><br />One can think that a line of black numbers predicts red number (regression to the mean).<br /><br />Or, one can think that a line of black numbers predict more black numbers. (finding a pattern where no exists.)- lucky streak in poker and other nonsense. <br /><br />I don't see any reason for people to prefer A to B. Why should they think that in rulette regression to the mean works but in poker divergence from the mean works? That's not consistent!!! And then you have no explanation why even irrational players play the Martingale Strategy!TomasHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03058055493155292368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9204374242006832151.post-67846684109881499562009-10-19T15:25:56.348+01:002009-10-19T15:25:56.348+01:00I think that the "regression to the mean"...I think that the "regression to the mean" or "law of small numbers" really works, i.e. people often behave as if they were drawing balls from a box and not returning them back. Just remember how many times people say something like "I must get lucky on the third try", or I have heard "there was a major airplane crash last week, it is much less probable there will be one again soon". <br /><br />The second thing you suggest (that people think there will be another red after a chain of red) is a mirror case: when people do not know that the results are just random and try to search for a pattern. E.g. if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, you might say that people suffer from this illusion if they think that a fund with a good history of performance for last few periods will bring you above average return in the future.LMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01244754040729923595noreply@blogger.com